This is a brand new award for the year 2021.
It goes to the show or movie that the audience is certain that something is going to happen… to the point of totally not worrying about anything else. They may twist clips or unimportant details from the show/movie that seem to slightly support their theory. They do so in order to claim that the arrival is “confirmed.” Except that it was never going to happen.
The first winner of this award became such a gigantic event that people turned it into a meme. It came from the Marvel Disney + series WandaVision, which actually had several of these in the show. People did not understand what a Marvel TV show was going to be like and their obsession with the comics that these shows are based upon cause trouble. Which of the moments in WandaVision wins this award? It could be the arrival of “Quicksilver” and how that meant that the X-Men were coming to the MCU. It could have been the speculation that Monica Rambeau’s engineer friend was Reed Richards (or a bunch of other Marvel characters). But neither of these could touch the one major speculation that consumed this show right up to the post credit of the finale.
Mephisto.

Yes, everyone had confirmed Mephisto after every mention of “the devil” or the large fly on the wall. Every one was Mephisto… from Agatha’s mysterious hubby Ralph to Evan Peters to Emma Caulfield’s Dottie. Yet, the demon never showed up.
I did believe that Mephisto was behind the trapping of Westview inside the dome, that he helped Wanda with her power levels. There were hints in the comics about Mephisto’s role in Wanda’s kids’ lives. but WandaVision wisely kept this closer to the vest, more personal for Wanda. Looking back now, Mephisto would not have worked in that series. We would not have had the same pay off a we got.
People have not yet learned their lesson either because there are plenty of people who believe that Dr. Strange in the Spider-Man: No Way Home trailer is acting odd because he was Mephisto. Mephisto was rumored to be in Loki early on too.
Now, everyone make a joke about Mephisto: Confirmed…. and so he is the perfect recipient of the inaugural Confirmed… or is it? Award.
Of course, if Andrew and Toby are not in Spider-Man: No Way Home, I may just have to reconsider the winner of this award.